Will China launch a military offensive intended to control Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Event Details
The active public market currently prices Yes at 11.5%, with about $2.97 million in total real volume and $0.10 million traded in 24 hours.
- Status: open
- Volume: 3.07M
- Liquidity: 242.88K
- Best bid: 11%
- Best ask: 12%
Outcomes
- Yes 11.5%
- No 88.5%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2027, China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan); otherwise resolve No. Inhabited islands qualify and uninhabited islands do not. Evidence must be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; a consensus of credible reporting may also establish the result. Automatic settlement still requires the source market to close, UMA to resolve, one unique outcome price to equal 1, and two consecutive consistent checks.