Will NATO and Russia have a direct military clash by August 31, 2026?
Event Details
This market asks whether NATO-country and Russian military forces will engage in a qualifying direct use-of-force encounter before the deadline.
- Status: settled
- Volume: 2.12M
- Liquidity: 0
- Best ask: 0.1%
Final Result
No
Outcomes
- Yes 0.1%
- No 99.9%
Resolution Rules
Resolve Yes if a qualifying direct military encounter occurs between the armed forces of a NATO country and Russia before the deadline; otherwise resolve No. Shooting down a military UAV that is not itself a munition qualifies. Intentional collisions or ramming without direct weapon use do not qualify. Military contractors qualify only when credible evidence confirms direct command or coordination by the relevant state's armed forces. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting under the public market's final rules.