Latest prediction: Can the Israel-Iran ceasefire last all September?
Event Details
An in-depth look at the September 30 cutoff, 84% live probability, roughly $497,707 real volume, and settlement limited to qualifying direct-impact air and missile attacks.
- Status: open
- Volume: 1.16M
- Liquidity: 56.30K
- Best bid: 85%
- Best ask: 86%
Outcomes
- Yes 85.5%
- No 14.5%
Resolution Rules
Yes requires no qualifying air, surface-to-surface missile, or one-way attack-drone strike directly hitting the other's land or internal waters. Interceptions, debris, cyber, small arms, artillery, naval gunfire, and minor short-range attacks do not count.